This post is based on an email I sent to a group of colleagues following the Apple iPad announcement this past Wednesday. Found myself reading it again – in light of another set of threads that I engaged in – and thought – hell – why not – for posterity … so here we go.
Three posts that make for interesting reading
1] http://stevenf.tumblr.com
This post talks about the gap in the market – not between the iphone and the imac – but between
the geeks and the not geeks and
the youth and the old – who want something simple – and ‘us’ in the middle, who are ‘used to’ wrestling down the problems of technology – and almost enjoy it 
2] http://9to5mac.com/apple-flash-ipad-3954934055
is a report that ‘flash is used on the demos seen on the ipad’
3] http://www.macrumors.com/2010/01/29/display-of-flash-content-in-ipad-promo-materials-likely-not-indicative-of-actual-flash-compatibility/
… which is clear – NO flash support according to adobe …
Apple have also been reported to the FTC for depicting use of flash on the iPad – BUT – the Apple response so far is quiet – and other commentators are weighing in to say if you look REALLY closely – sites like ‘the new york times’ which uses Flash – and used in the Apple ads are in fact not NYT sites – but apple simulations …. hmm …
So with these comments and other threads, what follows is my take;
I have long held the belief that as long as ‘Steve’ is at the helm – and probably longer – flash is not getting in on the act in apple’s mobile devices ….. Everyone talks about slowness, bugginess etc of flash – in fact this was posted to my Facebook stream just yesterday
Here’s a more informed view of the Flash situation from a friend. it’s hard to argue with his numbers:
“I did a quickie test with the new YouTube HTML5 beta. On a site that embedded a video (so Flash was used), my browser CPU utilization was 22%, and the Adobe Flash plug-in CPU utilization was 55%. (dual core macbook pro, so total CPU% = 200%).
After the video played, I watched the same video again directly on the YouTube site in HTML5. Adobe Flash plug-in CPU utilization was 4% (what it consumes just sitting on its hiney), and the browser CPU utilization was 17%.
77% vs 21%. that’s why Apple hates Adobe. There certainly may be personalities involved (with Jobs, there is always something personal), but Adobe Flash is just technically awful (this actually may be the crux of any Jobs’ hatred – he hates inelegance, and Adobe Flash is inelegant).
I don’t hate Adobe, and it does bother me that I can’t see Flash on the iPhone or iPad, but Adobe has acted very awfully in this area and doesn’t appear to be doing anything to address it. Google and Apple have the muscle to squeeze them out.” (my bold)
“Google and Apple have the muscle to squeeze them out.” … and make no mistake – the public noise of their competition aside – they are still working together – one example is Apple’s WebKit (Safari and Chrome) … and Apple / Google are leading the way in the HTML5 stakes – and in fact not just contributing to writing the standard – but are the leads. To me this world is a mystery – but the ‘wisdom’ i read is that with HTML5, Flash is not needed ….
Market Cap of ‘infrastructure’ companies sometimes give an idea of the weight they pull
aapl – 175 billion
goog – 168 billion
orcl – 115 billion
msft – 250 billion
and think about that – apple are sitting at a market cap of 70% of microsoft – and ten times adobe.
meanwhile for comp and perspective – the ‘app’ companies
sap – 54 billion
adobe – 17 billion
intuit is 9 billion
autodesk is 5 billion
electronic arts 5 billion
Wired writes “Many were expecting cameras, kickstands and some crazy new form of text input.” – see item 1) above – the many who whipped into the frenzy and were setting the expectations were the geeks – but that isn’t apple’s market – they put a LOT of effort into technology, design, complex and clever software – all with one single focus – to HIDE that complexity – so that ‘it just works’. Listen to steve’s wrap up at the end of the keynote where he talks about the fact that they sit at the integration of technology and liberal arts – i am not sure i would put it that way – but there is no doubt they sit at the intersection of technology and ‘getting things done – easily’.
One comparison is the motor car – even as recently as the 70s and even 80s – kids would learn how to fix their own cars – they don’t today – why ? two reasons ….
one
: because the cars are too complex
[underneath I mean, not to the driver - that hasn't changed - three (or two if automatic) pedals and a steering wheel]- but under the hood – a different world that makes the experience more pleasurable, more reliable – but also IMPOSSIBLE to get into without knowing a lot and having the right tools.
two
: they tend to ‘just work’
Think of the iphone / itouch / ipad’s removal of a file system – its there – somewhere – but god knows where – we just use the apps and the files it needs are just there … the complexity is being hidden because the majority of us don’t need it.
Further – under ‘Steve’s’ direction – Apple has often been in the vanguard of eschewing ‘common wisdom’ – and they are rarely wrong. Sometimes it takes a couple of goes – but the adoption of their stuff – is working. (Interesting note – Apple TV is presented to the world generally as a failure – and the KIndle – a success – guess what, according to Piper Jaffray, Apple TV has outsold the Kindle 2 to 1 !!
Even the ‘walled garden’ of apps that ‘everybody’ hates because it isn’t open and that unlocked phones can’t talk to iTunes – is seen as unfair – but it is a stunning success. The fact is MOST of the world doesn’t care what we the geeks think. They want their stuff – they want it simple – and Apple is giving them that … by offering a range of devices that work seamlessly with software – their TCO is way below a windows based PC – the integration is seamless from the device in your hand on your desk to stores that deliver what you need.
Finally – I think the iPad is designed as a consumer device – and I don’t mean by that ‘for the consumer’ – I mean it is a device to consume – video, tv, books, music, documents, spreadsheets, photos – and IF you want to post back into it – a clever little keyboard pops up that allows you to do that – it is recognizing that MOST of the world consume – even in this brave new world of collaboration – MOST people read the blog posts – and occasionally, if ever, comment. And – though they might have a blog – they rarely drive it and post to it on a daily basis – it is – as we were saying yesterday – just too hard !!
Benny Parsons – Nascar Driver once said “Everyone can’t be stars. Someone has to sit on the sidewalk and clap as they go by” … and its just the same in the collaborative world – it will continue to be that the majority consume – and the few create the content – and though right now the ‘message’ is that everyone can contribute, while it is true – they don’t (this is the blog angle that we have been talking about) .. fact is you don’t need a full on pc / laptop to do that – you just need a consuming device – with the ability to pop stuff out when you feel like it …
